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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="720" height="500" viewBox="0 0 720 500" role="img" aria-labelledby="title desc">
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<title id="title">Причинная линия synthetic case narrative</title><desc id="desc">План на декабрь 2026 проходит через проблему, варианты, плановую структуру, границу evidence и residual risk. Красные точки показывают условия остановки.</desc>
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<g font-family="Arial, sans-serif"><text x="48" y="49" font-size="24" font-weight="700" fill="#fff">План 2026-12: narrative без финала</text><text x="48" y="71" font-size="15" fill="#dbeafe">source cutoff 2026-07-31 · только fixed synthetic case</text>
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<g font-size="16" fill="#172033"><text x="45" y="186" font-weight="700">Проблема</text><text x="45" y="213">цена ошибки</text><text x="211" y="186" font-weight="700">Варианты</text><text x="211" y="213">rejected</text><text x="411" y="186" font-weight="700">Структура</text><text x="411" y="213">planned only</text><text x="607" y="186" font-weight="700">Risk</text><text x="607" y="213">открыт</text></g>
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<rect x="220" y="316" width="280" height="100" rx="12" fill="#dcfce7" stroke="#16a34a" stroke-width="2"/><text x="246" y="351" font-size="19" font-weight="700" fill="#166534">Evidence boundary</text><text x="246" y="378" font-size="16" fill="#172033">scenario-only · not-collected</text><text x="246" y="401" font-size="15" fill="#172033">productionEffect: not-attempted</text>
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<g font-size="14" fill="#991b1b"><text x="42" y="465">STOP: нет даты</text><text x="276" y="465">STOP: нет rejected option</text><text x="510" y="465">STOP: claim сильнее input</text></g>
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="720" height="500" viewBox="0 0 720 500" role="img" aria-labelledby="title desc">
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<title id="title">Петля границы synthetic evidence hand-off</title><desc id="desc">Карточка будущего сценария декабря 2026 передаёт date, cutoff, варианты и evidence scenario-only будущему владельцу. Красные возвраты обозначают четыре fail-closed статуса.</desc>
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<g font-family="Arial, sans-serif"><text x="48" y="49" font-size="24" font-weight="700" fill="#fff">План 2026-12: evidence boundary hand-off</text><text x="48" y="71" font-size="15" fill="#dbeafe">source cutoff 2026-07-31 · productionEffect: not-attempted</text>
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<rect x="38" y="145" width="238" height="146" rx="12" fill="#dbeafe" stroke="#2563eb" stroke-width="2"/><text x="61" y="178" font-size="20" font-weight="700" fill="#17365d">Карточка сценария</text><text x="61" y="211" font-size="16" fill="#172033">date + cutoff</text><text x="61" y="236" font-size="16" fill="#172033">options + rejected</text><text x="61" y="261" font-size="16" fill="#172033">scenario-only</text>
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<rect x="444" y="145" width="238" height="146" rx="12" fill="#dcfce7" stroke="#16a34a" stroke-width="2"/><text x="467" y="178" font-size="20" font-weight="700" fill="#166534">Будущий владелец</text><text x="467" y="211" font-size="16" fill="#172033">получает boundary,</text><text x="467" y="236" font-size="16" fill="#172033">не action и</text><text x="467" y="261" font-size="16" fill="#172033">не результат</text>
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<path d="M282 218 H437" fill="none" stroke="#2563eb" stroke-width="4" marker-end="url(#b)"/><text x="300" y="198" font-size="15" fill="#1d4ed8">synthetic-plan-hand-off</text>
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<rect x="120" y="354" width="480" height="106" rx="12" fill="#fff1f2" stroke="#dc2626" stroke-width="2"/><text x="145" y="387" font-size="19" font-weight="700" fill="#991b1b">FAIL-CLOSED возврат</text><text x="145" y="416" font-size="15" fill="#4c0519">нет даты · нет rejected option · claim сильнее input</text><text x="145" y="442" font-size="15" fill="#4c0519">positive result запрещён · effect всегда not-attempted</text>
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="720" height="500" viewBox="0 0 720 500" role="img" aria-labelledby="title desc">
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<title id="title">Ledger силы evidence и claim</title><desc id="desc">В сценарии декабря 2026 input scenario-only допускает claim scenario-only. Не собранное наблюдение и контрфактические вопросы останавливают benchmark-claim и completed result.</desc>
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<rect width="720" height="500" fill="#f8fafc"/><rect x="24" y="20" width="672" height="64" rx="12" fill="#17365d"/>
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<g font-family="Arial, sans-serif"><text x="48" y="49" font-size="24" font-weight="700" fill="#fff">План 2026-12: ledger причинного claim</text><text x="48" y="71" font-size="15" fill="#dbeafe">cutoff 2026-07-31 · наблюдение не собрано</text>
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<rect x="30" y="112" width="310" height="48" fill="#dbeafe"/><rect x="340" y="112" width="350" height="48" fill="#dcfce7"/><text x="51" y="143" font-size="18" font-weight="700" fill="#17365d">Вход и наблюдение</text><text x="363" y="143" font-size="18" font-weight="700" fill="#166534">Допустимый claim</text>
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<g font-size="17" fill="#172033"><rect x="30" y="160" width="310" height="64" fill="#fff" stroke="#b9c7d8"/><text x="49" y="189">input: scenario-only</text><text x="49" y="212">record: fixed-plan-brief</text><rect x="340" y="160" width="350" height="64" fill="#fff" stroke="#b9c7d8"/><text x="360" y="189">claim: scenario-only</text><text x="360" y="212">output: safe hand-off</text>
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<rect x="30" y="224" width="310" height="64" fill="#f8fbff" stroke="#b9c7d8"/><text x="49" y="253">observation: not-collected</text><text x="49" y="276">нет event и measurement</text><rect x="340" y="224" width="350" height="64" fill="#fff1f2" stroke="#dc2626"/><text x="360" y="253" fill="#991b1b">STOP: benchmark-confirmed</text><text x="360" y="276" fill="#991b1b">сильнее входа</text></g>
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<path d="M186 318 H534" stroke="#2563eb" stroke-width="4"/><circle cx="186" cy="318" r="8" fill="#2563eb"/><circle cx="534" cy="318" r="8" fill="#2563eb"/><text x="234" y="307" font-size="16" fill="#1d4ed8">claim не превосходит input</text>
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<rect x="40" y="360" width="640" height="106" rx="12" fill="#fff7ed" stroke="#ea580c" stroke-width="2"/><text x="62" y="392" font-size="19" font-weight="700" fill="#9a3412">Контрфактический вопрос</text><text x="62" y="420" font-size="16" fill="#431407">Остался бы вывод тем же, если убрать заявленный input?</text><text x="62" y="446" font-size="16" fill="#431407">Если да — proof не зависит от evidence, нужен STOP.</text></g>
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</svg>
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