revise December 2026 portfolio case articles
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<title id="title">Ledger силы evidence и claim</title><desc id="desc">В сценарии декабря 2026 input scenario-only допускает claim scenario-only. Не собранное наблюдение и контрфактические вопросы останавливают benchmark-claim и completed result.</desc>
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<g font-family="Arial, sans-serif"><text x="48" y="49" font-size="24" font-weight="700" fill="#fff">План 2026-12: ledger причинного claim</text><text x="48" y="71" font-size="15" fill="#dbeafe">cutoff 2026-07-31 · наблюдение не собрано</text>
<rect x="30" y="112" width="310" height="48" fill="#dbeafe"/><rect x="340" y="112" width="350" height="48" fill="#dcfce7"/><text x="51" y="143" font-size="18" font-weight="700" fill="#17365d">Вход и наблюдение</text><text x="363" y="143" font-size="18" font-weight="700" fill="#166534">Допустимый claim</text>
<g font-size="17" fill="#172033"><rect x="30" y="160" width="310" height="64" fill="#fff" stroke="#b9c7d8"/><text x="49" y="189">input: scenario-only</text><text x="49" y="212">record: fixed-plan-brief</text><rect x="340" y="160" width="350" height="64" fill="#fff" stroke="#b9c7d8"/><text x="360" y="189">claim: scenario-only</text><text x="360" y="212">output: safe hand-off</text>
<rect x="30" y="224" width="310" height="64" fill="#f8fbff" stroke="#b9c7d8"/><text x="49" y="253">observation: not-collected</text><text x="49" y="276">нет event и measurement</text><rect x="340" y="224" width="350" height="64" fill="#fff1f2" stroke="#dc2626"/><text x="360" y="253" fill="#991b1b">STOP: benchmark-confirmed</text><text x="360" y="276" fill="#991b1b">сильнее входа</text></g>
<path d="M186 318 H534" stroke="#2563eb" stroke-width="4"/><circle cx="186" cy="318" r="8" fill="#2563eb"/><circle cx="534" cy="318" r="8" fill="#2563eb"/><text x="234" y="307" font-size="16" fill="#1d4ed8">claim не превосходит input</text>
<rect x="40" y="360" width="640" height="106" rx="12" fill="#fff7ed" stroke="#ea580c" stroke-width="2"/><text x="62" y="392" font-size="19" font-weight="700" fill="#9a3412">Контрфактический вопрос</text><text x="62" y="420" font-size="16" fill="#431407">Остался бы вывод тем же, если убрать заявленный input?</text><text x="62" y="446" font-size="16" fill="#431407">Если да — proof не зависит от evidence, нужен STOP.</text></g>
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